027 - Medium Format is Coming for the Masses

Mirrorless cameras and phone-based cameras have taken over the camera industry. This wasn’t really an unexpected turn of events. When smartphones were created and camera’s started being put into them, smart people started seeing the writing on the wall for compact cameras. The same can be said for when the mirrorless camera was first released into the mass market. There were problems, but people started seeing the potential right away. Including most camera companies, Sony in particular. 

Now companies are bringing the full-frame sensor to the masses as well. With the ability to purchase a full-frame camera for around $1,000. This was unheard of on DSLRs. But, now they are here.

So, all this change got me to thinking. What’s going to happen next in the camera market? What is the next major shakeup that is coming?

Based on historical trends and current pricing, plus what companies are building and investing in, I believe that the next major shift will be a focus on the medium format sensor and medium format digital cameras for the mass market. And I don’t see this shift happening in the next 20 or 30 years. I see it coming within the next decade.

Before we go further you need to understand something about medium format. The term medium format sensor is a catch-all term used to describe sensors that are bigger than full-frame and come close to mimicking the 120/220 film size, although the actual size of the sensor varies from company to company. So these sensors actually typically range in size from around 43.8×32.9mm to 53.7×40.2mm. So, quite a bit of variation. The important thing to understand here is that, unlike full-frame which is one standard size, medium format is a type of camera that sits between full-frame and large format.

While most of the conversation in the digital age of photography has centred on APS-C and full-frame sensors, the medium format camera never really went away. It just went into a higher bracket that only professionals who needed these cameras were purchasing. That’s because they are typically tens of thousands of dollars, big and heavy, and function at a much higher standard than most people need.

But what I see happening in the near future is a shift towards medium format digital cameras becoming accessible in the mass market. And this shift has already started, with amazing cameras like the Fujifilm GFX 50 series, the Hasselblad X1D II series and the Pentax 645Z. You can get these cameras for around $7500 CDN. Which yes, is a lot of money. But not when you consider industry average which is at least double that price if not higher. For about the same price you would spend on a flagship DSLR or mirrorless camera, you can get something with a sensor that is significantly larger. That’s a huge shift in the industry already. To bring the price of these cameras down so close to their full-frame counterparts.

But what makes me think we are going to see a massive shift towards medium format being available to the masses in the next decade? For that, we need a bit of a history lesson.

The first digital SLR for the consumer market was released by Nikon in 1988. Over the next decade, the DSLR slowly got better and better until they replaced film cameras as the industry standard during the 2000s. This was about a 20-year shift from the first consumer DSLR to the DSLR taking over the consumer market.

Now, we are in the midst of another mass shift in the market as mirrorless cameras start to take over from DSLRs. The first full-fledged mirrorless camera was brought to the consumer market in 2008 by Panasonic (this was also the first camera in the micro four-thirds system.) In 2015, sales of DSLRs outpaced those of Mirrorless cameras by a 4-1 margin.

Compare that to 2019 when mirrorless camera sales outpaced those of DSLRs. In just four years mirrorless cameras overcame a 4-1 difference in total sales. From the time mirrorless was introduced to when it surpassed DSLR in total yearly sales took just 11 years. That’s quite the increase in sales and in how fast mirrorless has taken over the sales market.

That brings us to the medium format digital camera. We’ve had medium format digital cameras for a while now, but the true revelation happened in 2016 when Hasselblad introduced the first medium format mirrorless digital camera. This made medium format more compact, portable and had a lower price point. Meaning it was easier for some professionals to get into the medium format business.

Today, there are four companies making mirrorless medium format digital cameras. And there are rumours of other companies making their way into this market as well. If we look at how many companies are joining in on making a mirrorless medium format (Pentax just jumped on board this year), you can start to see how we may be in for some significant price drops as technology progresses forwards and sensors become easier and cheaper to produce.

And if it took mirrorless cameras about nine years less to take over the market versus what DSLRs did to film, then you can see how the speed of technology can play a factor in medium format being made available to the masses. Medium format also has many of the same problems as mirrorless cameras did when they were first introduced. They shoot at about 3 frames per second, they don’t have the fastest autofocus, their menu systems are clunky and there aren’t a ton of options for lenses. But with more and more camera companies jumping on board, these problems will be worked out in future iterations. It took mirrorless cameras just a decade to catch up to DSLRs in terms of usability. And they keep getting better. And I fully expect medium format cameras to take full advantage of all teh technological advances that are being made for full-frame mirrorless cameras. Which will help speed up their development. Meaning, by 2030, we are going to see people debating not between which full frame camera to get but if they want a medium format or a full-frame camera. 

But now the question becomes why. Why would camera manufacturers bother with medium format and making it accessible to the consumer market when the camera industry as a whole is crashing down (thanks in large part to smartphones replacing compact cameras and most people electing to shoot their images on smartphones).

This answer is two-fold.

Firstly, it comes down to finding a new target audience. By making medium format more accessible to the general photographer population you bring in more customers to your brand. Notice how the companies who are currently making medium format cameras aren’t those with a huge share of the market. They are niche companies with devoted fans. But these fans only have so much money to spread around and to keep a company viable you need to keep bringing in new customers. This is why they will make medium format cameras that the masses can get their hands on. Because then, when say wedding and portrait photographers start thinking about purchasing a new camera they may get a medium format camera instead of buying another full frame. This is because there isn’t nearly the same price discrepancy that there was before. It gives them another option, and there are certainly a number of photographers who will go down this route thanks in part to the advantages (or perceived advantages) that medium format sensors have.

Secondly, it’s to entice people into the market and to get people buying cameras again. This is also the reason that Canon, Nikon and Sony have all released cheap full-frame mirrorless cameras. There is a huge segment of the population who want to take photos on something better than their phone but can’t justify the cost of spending $2,500 on a camera. Enter the sub-$1000 mirrorless full-frame camera. This same line of thinking can be applied to mirrorless medium format cameras. Lowering the cost of entry brings more people into a camera company’s eco-system. Meaning they will buy more lenses, more batteries, more accessories, and - if the company does its job right - will want to keep buying more and more expensive cameras. Think about a hobbyist buying a Canon Rebel and realizing it’s limitations, so they buy a Canon 90D and then see that camera’s limitations so they move up into a 5D Mark IV. They keep purchasing more and more expensive cameras (and likely lenses and accessories to go along with this). Lowering the cost of entry to something that hobbyists with a bit of money (think those who shoot ‘just for fun’ but own a Canon 1Dx Mark III and L series glass) can get into the system is a huge boon for these companies.

So, in the end, because of competing market forces, advances in technology and the drive for photographers through gear acquisition syndrome, I can really see medium format cameras becoming something that people will be seriously considering purchasing in the next 5 years and will become pretty commonplace in the industry within the next decade.

But, as with everything else, we will see. This is just something I’ve been thinking about as I ponder my own switch over into a mirrorless camera and away from my trusty DSLRs.